Ocean Observing and Climate
LSLTOC Theme 3 - Assimilating data into models in an operational mode
Real-time physical and biological forecasting is a complex and challenging problem. The skills currently being developed at SOC focus on the interpretation of asynoptic data collected during interdisciplinary cruises, and the optimisation of survey strategy. The first successful physical and biological forecasting was carried out at sea in June 2001 onboard RRS Discovery at the Iceland-Faroes Front using a 3D coupled physical and biological model. Rapid variations in zooplankton biomass had been observed across the frontal region from traditional net samples, and these were associated with sharp changes in water mass characteristics. Ocean colour satellite images also indicated that a spring bloom had begun in the vicinity of the front, but the patchiness of the bloom showed a significant influence of dynamic physical processes at the frontal boundary. Physical, biological and chemical data from a rapid fine scale upper ocean survey were assimilated into the model hours after being collected and calibrated. The forecast successfully predicted the evolution of an anticyclonic meander and associated biological processes, confirmed by a second fine scale survey just 24 hours after the first. The model provided estimates of the error due to the sampling strategy of the first survey, so allowed a re-design of the second survey to minimise sampling error.
